Every Thursday, we’ll provide analysis and score predictions for every game on that week’s slate. Week 9 has a number of high-interest matchups between contending teams. The slate also has an abnormal amount of games where we don’t yet know who will start at quarterback.
Thursday Night Football
Titans vs. Steelers
Spread: Steelers -2.5
Total: 36.5
This is a game between tough, physical teams led by two of the best football coaches on the planet. The trenches are supremely important in this matchup, as both defensive fronts have a significant edge.
Both teams also have volatile quarterbacks with good skill groups against beatable secondaries. The path to victory for both teams is nearly identical. Ultimately, the team that best mitigates their opponents' defensive front likely walks away with a win.
Score Prediction with Kenny Pickett: Steelers 20, Titans 16
Score Prediction without Kenny Pickett: Titans 16, Steelers 13
Dolphins vs. Chiefs (in Germany)
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Total: 51
This is one of several marquee matchups on the Week 9 slate. The winning quarterback of this contest likely enters Week 10 as the standalone MVP favorite. So far this season, the Miami Dolphins’ high-powered offense has sputtered against quality defenses like Kansas City’s.
On the other side, Patrick Mahomes’ offense hasn’t been what we’re used to seeing. Their two losses have been littered with drops in big moments. If the Kansas City Chiefs are going to knock off Miami, they need more from Mahomes’ supporting cast.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 24
Rams vs. Packers
Spread: Packers -3
Total: 40
If Matthew Stafford misses this contest, Sean McVay’s wizardry is the only real path to any offensive production for the Los Angeles Rams. In that scenario, the Green Bay Packers' struggling offense could get a free pass this week. If Stafford plays, his passing attack has made Los Angeles a competitive team this year.
In that scenario, Jordan Love’s offense has been among the least effective in the league. It’s hard to envision Love out dueling Stafford. The Rams can win this game with Stafford, while the Packers’ defense can carry this one if he misses this contest.
Score Prediction with Stafford: Rams 23, Packers 17
Score Prediction without Stafford: Packers 17, Rams 6
Vikings vs. Falcons
Spread: Falcons -4.5
Total: 37.5
Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury completely changes the Minnesota Vikings, who were an ascending team. Now rookie Jaren Hall or newly acquired Joshua Dobbs will start at quarterback for Minnesota. That’s fortunate for the Atlanta Falconsbecause this quarterback exchange greatly increases their chances of winning.
Atlanta has its own quarterback conundrum as Taylor Heinicke will replace Desmond Ridder this week. We can’t exactly count on Arthur Smith’s offense, either. Remember, all but one of Atlanta’s four wins this year came by three points or less.
Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Vikings 16
Seahawks vs. Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6
Total: 43
This is another intriguing matchup between two likely playoff teams. The Baltimore Ravens are a significant favorite for two reasons. First, Lamar Jackson has carried the Ravens’ offense since he took over in 2019. Second, Baltimore’s top-shelf defense faces Geno Smith, who has five interceptions over his last three games.
If Smith plays well, the Seattle Seahawks are a live underdog. If Smith continues to be inconsistent, Seattle has a narrow path to victory.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Seahawks 17
Commanders vs. Patriots
Spread: Patriots -3.5
Total: 41
Bill Belichick has been making young quarterback’s lives miserable throughout this century. The New England Patriots are down a few difference-makers on defense, but Belichick thrives in situations like this.
Sam Howell’s offense has largely carried the Washington Commanders, it’s Washington’s defense that has been the problem. The Commanders just traded their talented edge duo of Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Not only does that weaken Washington’s already struggling defense, but it also shows how management views this season.
Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Commanders 20
Buccaneers vs. Texans
Spread: Texans -2.5
Total: 40
Both teams have good defenses paired with offenses that have been ineffective on the ground. It's easier to game plan for one-dimensional offenses. The Houston Texans have asked a lot from rookie C.J. Stroud, who has delivered to this point this season. That said, Stroud has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of Houston’s last two games.
Baker Mayfield has played reasonably well, but he’s not capable of consistently carrying an NFL offense. Expect this one to be tight and low-scoring; we give Stroud’s Texans the slight nod at home. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a long week having faced the Buffalo Bills last Thursday night.
Score Prediction: Texans 20, Buccaneers 17
Cardinals vs. Browns
Spread: Browns -8
Total: 37.5
It would be a surprise if Deshaun Watson returned to action this week. Even if he does, the Cleveland Browns’ defense drives their success. The bigger question is will Clayton Tune or Kyler Murray start for the Arizona Cardinals?
If it’s Tune, it’s hard to see the Cardinals’ offense having much success against Cleveland’s premium defense. If Murray plays, Arizona likely struggles anyway, but Murray is an obvious, monumental upgrade. Regardless of which Cardinals quarterback plays, the Browns’ defense can win this game on their own.
Score Prediction: Browns 16, Cardinals 10
Bears vs. Saints
Spread: Saints -7.5
Total: 41.5
Derek Carr has thrown for more than 300 passing yards in three straight games. That means the New Orleans Saints have a rock-solid defense, quality running game and a productive passing attack.
The Chicago Bears are struggling in virtually every area. If Justin Fields returns to action, Chicago has a higher ceiling on offense. If Tyson Bagent is under center, facing the Saints in New Orleans is a tough draw. The Bears just traded for Sweat. That’s a long-view move that upgrades Chicago’s biggest weakness in the short term. If Bagent is the starter, Chicago’s defense will have to carry this game.
Score Prediction: Saints 24, Bears 13
Colts vs. Panthers
Spread: Panthers +2.5
Total: 44
The Carolina Panthers’ defense spearheaded its first win of the season against Houston last week. The Panthers now face another beatable AFC South opponent, the Indianapolis Colts.
Indianapolis has been shockingly effective on offense. Zack Moss is second in the league in rushing yards, while Gardner Minshew has thrown for more than 300 yards in two of his last three games. The Colts’ defense, however, is giving up the most points per game in the league. Bryce Young has a great opportunity for a spike game against Indianapolis’ secondary.
Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Colts 20
Cowboys vs. Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3
Total: 46
This is yet another marquee matchup between two of the best rosters in the sport. Last year, these division rivals split, but the Dallas Cowboys got their win while Jalen Hurts was sidelined. Both teams’ offensive lines can mitigate their opponents' premium defensive front.
Both quarterbacks are capable of MVP-caliber production. The Philadelphia Eagles have a slightly better skill group and secondary, which gives them a small nod from a talent perspective.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Cowboys 21
Giants vs. Raiders
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Total: 37.5
The Las Vegas Raidersfired their head coach and general manager earlier this week. Las Vegas has some excellent players, but it's a volatile organization. That creates an opportunity for the New York Giants, whose defense has been excellent over the last month.
If Daniel Jones returns to action, New York could string together enough offense to win this game. Without Jones or Tyrod Taylor, the Giants’ offense under Tommy DeVito was basically non-existent last week. This is another matchup that will ultimately boil down to which quarterback plays.
Score Prediction with Daniel Jones: Giants 20, Raiders 17
Score Prediction without Daniel Jones: Raiders 17, Giants 9
Sunday Night Football
Bills vs. Bengals
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Total: 48.5
Two MVP-caliber quarterbacks with talented supporting casts make this one of the most high-interest matchups of the season. When these teams squared off last year both offenses came out hot, then the Damar Hamlin tragedy struck.
Hamlin is back in uniform for Buffalo, which makes this more than just a football game for many involved. At full strength, the Bills have a better defense than Cincinnati, but injuries have closed that talent gap. Buffalo is particularly thin at linebacker with Matt Milano sidelined.
Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 24
Monday Night Football
Chargers vs. Jets
Spread: Jets +3
Justin Herbert vs. Zach Wilson is as lopsided of a quarterback matchup as you’ll ever see. The New York Jets’ defense has driven wins against the Bills and Eagles, while taking the Chiefs to the brink.
New York was the host in each of those contests, as they are on Monday. Even if they limit Herbert, the Jets still need something out of Wilson’s offense. At this point, that’s not something we can count on.
Total: 41.5
Score Prediction: Chargers 17, Jets 13
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Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
